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Analysis Predicts Big Drop for U.S. in Global Health Rankings
- December 6, 2024
- Dennis Thompson HealthDay Reporter
Americans are falling farther behind the rest of the developed world when it comes to health and life expectancy, a new study shows.
Life expectancy in the United States is expected to increase to 79.9 years in 2035 and 80.4 years by 2050, up from 78.3 years in 2022, researchers reported.
That sounds good, but it’s actually a modest increase that will lower the nation’s global ranking from 49th in 2022 to 66th in 2050 among 204 countries around the world, they found.
“The rapid decline of the U.S. in global rankings from 2022 to 2050 rings the alarm for immediate action,” said co-senior study author Dr. Stein Emil Vollset, an affiliate professor with the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington in Seattle.
“The U.S. must change course and find new and better health strategies and policies that slow down the decline in future health outcomes,” Vollset added in a university news release.
The United States is also expected to rank progressively lower than other nations in the average number of years a person can expect to live in good health, researchers reported Dec. 5 in the Lancet journal.
The U.S. ranking in healthy life expectancy will drop from 80th in 2022 to 108th by 2050, results showed.
The comparative health of U.S. women is expected to fare worse than that of men.
Female life expectancy in the U.S. is forecast to drop to 74th in 2050, down from 19th in 1990, while male life expectancy will decrease to 65th in 2050 from 35th in 1990, the study found.
The major drivers of poor health in America include obesity, high blood sugar and high blood pressure, researchers noted.
If those risk factors were eliminated by 2050, 12.4 million deaths could be averted, researchers forecast.
“In spite of modest increases in life expectancy overall, our models forecast health improvements slowing down due to rising rates of obesity, which is a serious risk factor to many chronic diseases and forecasted to leap to levels never before seen,” said co-senior study author Dr. Christopher Murray, director of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington.
“The rise in obesity and overweight rates in the U.S., with IHME forecasting over 260 million people affected by 2050, signals a public health crisis of unimaginable scale,” Murray added.
Drug-related deaths also are eating into American health.
The United States recorded an 878% increase in the death rate from drug use disorders between 1990 and 2021, rising from 2 deaths to 19.5 deaths per 100,000, researchers noted.
And that rate is expected to climb another 34% by 2050, up to 26.7 deaths per 100,000 -- the highest drug-related mortality rate in the world, more than twice that of the second-highest country, Canada.
“The stark contrast that’s forecasted in the next 30 years comes after a concerted effort by federal, state and local government agencies and health systems launched after the opioid crisis was declared a public health emergency in 2017,” said lead researcher Ali Mokdad, a professor with IHME.
“The opioid epidemic is far from over, and greater effectiveness and continued expansion of programs to prevent and treat drug use are still needed,” Mokdad added.
These trends harm not only individual Americans, but the nation as a whole, researchers said.
“Poor health harms the economy because the nation suffers from a reduced workforce, lower productivity and higher health care costs for companies and their employees,” Murray said. “That leads to a lower GDP and a chance for peer countries with a stronger economy to overtake the U.S., creating a ripple effect around the world financially and geopolitically.”
Expanding health care access is the most straightforward way to improve America’s standing, as such coverage allows doctors to catch and treat disease more effectively, researchers said.
“All Americans must have access to high-quality health care through universal health coverage to prevent illness, stay healthy and be protected from financial hardship, regardless of their income,” Mokdad said.
More information
The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has more about U.S. life expectancy.
SOURCE: Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, news release, Dec. 5, 2024.
